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    渤海海洋气象灾害天气分型与预报指标研究

    Study on weather classification and forecasting index of marine meteorological disasters in the Bohai sea

    • 摘要: 为了掌握渤海海洋气象灾害的特征,提高海洋气象灾害的监测预报能力,根据天气学原理并采用天气学分析方法,利用Micaps、卫星云图、探空、国家基本气象观测站及大浮标站资料,对2001-2015年渤海海区由大风、大雾、强对流引发的78次海难事故的天气个例进行分析。结果表明:渤海海上大风以冬季和春季偏北大风为主,偏南大风次之,影响渤海及沿岸地区的偏北大风冷空气可以分为北路、西北路和西路3条路径,偏南大风地面气压场可以分为东北低压型和华北地形槽型。渤海海上大雾多出现在秋季和冬季,多发的平流雾通过东、东南和西南3条路径进入并影响渤海及沿岸地区。渤海强对流天气主要出现在5-9月,强对流天气主要受蒙古低涡(低槽)和东北低涡(低槽)影响。

       

      Abstract: In order to understand the characteristics of marine meteorological disasters in the Bohai sea,improving the ability of marine meteorological disaster monitoring and forecasting,MICAPS,satellite images,sounding data,national basic meteorological observation station data and buoy station data were used to analyze the weather cases of 78 shipwreck accidents caused by gale,fog,severe convection during 2001 to 2015 in the Bohai sea.The results show that the main gale in the Bohai sea is the north gale in winter and spring and the south gale is rare.The cold air is delivered from northern,northwestern and western paths.The surface air pressure field of southern wind can be grouped into two patterns,that is,the northeastern low pressure and the North China topographic trough.Heavy fog in the Bohai sea usually occurs in autumn and winter.The advection fog affecting the Bohai sea and its coastal regions comes from the eastern,southeastern and southwestern paths.Strong convective weather in the Bohai sea usually occurs during May to September,which is influenced mainly by Mongolia vortex (trough) and Northeast vortex (trough).

       

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